Can Catholic Voters Tip the Midterms?

Catholic voters in the United States are showing shifting attitudes toward President Trump ahead of the midterm elections, according to an analysis by Heidi Schlumpf for Commonweal. While the 2024 election saw white Catholics, particularly weekly Mass attendees, move toward the Republican Party, recent trends suggest declining confidence in the president.

Polling from the Pew Research Center in January showed that support for Trump's job performance had already declined among white and Hispanic Catholics before he began criticizing Pope Leo XIV this spring. The report noted that faith in the president's ethics was low, with only 34 percent of white Catholics and 14 percent of Hispanic Catholics giving him high marks.

Following public disagreements between Trump and the pope regarding the conflict in Iran and other issues this summer, a majority of U.S. Catholics expressed preference for the pope over the president. While the pope's favorability remains high, many Catholics indicated that Trump has been too critical of him.